Can Abba Yusuf win Kano State 2027 Election  again?

Political activity is heating up in Kano as the state prepares for its 2027 governorship race. OpinionMarket currently places Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the APC ahead of his main rivals, with Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo of the NDC party and Muhammad Bello Dalhatu of PDP party trailing behind.

 However, the market is not simply a contest between candidates; it reflects a deeper struggle involving the Kwankwasiyya movement, the APC establishment, party defections and the political legacy of the disputed 2023 election.

OpinionMarket’s displayed forecast shows Aminu Abdussalam at 55%, Abba Kabir Yusuf at 36%, Muhammad Bello Dalhatu at 5% and other candidates at 4%. These figures represent the market’s current expectations, not official polling results or a guarantee of the eventual winner.

The big question is: who has the strongest political machinery to win Kano?

The 2019 election showed just how competitive Kano politics could be.

The then governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC faced Abba Yusuf of the PDP. The initial election was declared inconclusive after Yusuf polled 1,014,474 votes against Ganduje's 987,819. Punch

After a supplementary election, Ganduje eventually won with 1,033,695 votes, while Yusuf finished with 1,024,713 a difference of fewer than 9,000 votes. Wikipedia

That narrow result demonstrated something important about Kano: a strong political structure can make the difference in a closely contested election.

Four years later, Yusuf returned as the NNPP candidate, backed by former governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiyya political movement.

The APC fielded Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, Ganduje's former deputy.

This time, Yusuf won.

INEC declared him the winner with 1,019,602 votes, compared with Gawuna's 890,705. Youtube

But the victory did not end the battle.

The APC challenged the result, and the election tribunal later declared Gawuna the winner. The Court of Appeal upheld that decision before the Supreme Court overturned the lower-court rulings in January 2024 and affirmed Yusuf's election. ChannelsTV

The political landscape changed dramatically when Yusuf left the NNPP and joined the APC in January 2026. APC

That means the man who defeated the APC in 2023 will now seek re-election under the party he defeated.

The move also created a major split with parts of the political structure that helped him win.

His former deputy, Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, eventually emerged as the NDC's governorship candidate. Business Day

Gwarzo's candidacy makes the race particularly interesting because he was not an outsider to the Yusuf administration. He served as Yusuf's deputy governor before their political relationship broke down.

Even more importantly, Gwarzo has the backing of the Kwankwasiyya camp, with Mustapha Kwankwaso, Rabiu Kwankwaso's son, chosen as his running mate. PM News Nigeria

That could make the contest a direct test of whether Yusuf can retain the political network that helped bring him to power in 2023.

Another important piece of Kano's political puzzle is Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, Yusuf's 2023 opponent.

Gawuna has since left the APC and moved into the opposition camp associated with Kwankwaso. He is now positioned for a Senate contest rather than another governorship run. Legit

His movement shows just how much the political alliances that shaped the 2023 election have changed ahead of 2027.

The PDP will be represented by Muhammad Bello Dalhatu, who emerged from the party's governorship primary after defeating Muhammad Sani Abacha. Legit

Dalhatu faces a difficult task.

With the major political battle increasingly centred around Yusuf and Gwarzo, the PDP will need to build a strong grassroots campaign if it wants to become more than a third force in the race.

OpinionMarket's Kano governorship market currently has:

Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo  55%, Abba Kabir Yusuf  36%,Muhammad Bello Dalhatu  5%
Others  4%

These figures represent the current positions in the OpinionMarket prediction market, not an opinion poll or official election forecast.

With the governorship election scheduled for February 6, 2027, there is still considerable time for alliances, endorsements, campaign strength and political developments to change the race. INEC

Kano's 2027 election is shaping up to be more than a contest between three candidates.

It is a battle over political alliances, the Kwankwasiyya movement, APC's growing influence and the ability of former allies to turn their grassroots networks against one another.

For Abba Yusuf, the challenge is defending the seat he won in 2023 after changing political camps.

For Aminu Gwarzo, it is an opportunity to turn his former position inside the government and his Kwankwasiyya backing into electoral strength.

And for Muhammad Bello Dalhatu, the challenge is breaking into a contest dominated by two powerful political camps.

Kano's political chessboard has changed. The question now is who will control it when voters go to the polls in 2027.