Lagos 2027 Election: The Battle for Lagos State

The 2027 Lagos governorship election is scheduled for February 6, 2027, and the race is beginning to look less like a distant political event and more like a battle over what direction Africa’s most populous city should take next. ngelections

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s second and final term approaching its end, the political contest to take over Lagos is already producing alliances, controversies, legal questions and plenty of political drama.

The ruling party APC has its candidate, opposition parties are reorganising, and issues ranging from demolitions and housing to transport, urban planning and the conduct of previous elections are already becoming part of the conversation.

And Lagos being Lagos, the road to Alausa is unlikely to be quiet.

The APC has moved early.

Obafemi Hamzat, the current Deputy Governor of Lagos, was adopted as the party's consensus governorship candidate by the Lagos APC's Governance Advisory Council in April 2026. President Bola Tinubu subsequently endorsed his candidacy. Channels TV

Hamzat's candidacy represents an attempt by the governing party to maintain continuity in Lagos after the Sanwo-Olu administration.

But the APC will still have to campaign around the issues that have generated criticism of the current government.

And this is where the OpinionMarket Lagos 2027 market becomes interesting.

As of September 25, 2026, the market shows: Obafemi Hamzat (APC)  - 35%, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (ADC) - 32%, Adedeji Doherty (PDP) - 29%, Other candidates - 4%

The figures are not an INEC result or an opinion poll. They are the current prices in OpinionMarket's prediction market, meaning they reflect how traders were pricing the listed outcomes at that particular point in time.

With the three major names sitting relatively close together in the snapshot, developments between now and election day could make the market particularly interesting to follow.

Then there is Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour.

The ADC candidate was one of the major opposition figures in the 2023 Lagos election and is returning for another attempt at Alausa.

But 2027 is not simply a repeat of 2023.

Rhodes-Vivour and Peter Obi previously contested the 2023 elections under the Labour Party. Obi has since left the ADC for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), meaning Rhodes-Vivour will be navigating the next Lagos election without the same political arrangement that existed in 2023. Channels TV

Rhodes-Vivour has said he is instead relying on a broader opposition coalition and grassroots organisation across Lagos. He has also made issues surrounding demolitions and protection of votes part of his political messaging. Channels TV

That raises one of the biggest questions of the 2027 race:

Can the opposition convert its growing political coalition into votes across Lagos?

Few issues have generated as much controversy around the Lagos government recently as the demolition of structures in Makoko and other waterfront communities.

The Lagos State Government has defended the exercise on safety and environmental grounds, particularly structures located around high-tension power lines and other high-risk areas. Governor Sanwo-olu said the government was acting to prevent potential disasters and announced that support, relocation options and grants would be considered for affected residents. Premium Times

But residents and civil society groups have strongly criticised the demolitions.

Protesters alleged that the exercise displaced families and destroyed livelihoods, while demanding compensation and an investigation into the conduct of the demolitions. Premium Times

The controversy has continued beyond Makoko, with the state government also ordering the removal of shanties along sections of the Lagos-Badagry Expressway and taking enforcement action against buildings it considers unsafe or structurally compromised. Premium Times

The government describes these actions primarily in terms of safety, urban planning and environmental enforcement.

Critics, however, have raised questions about displacement, compensation and the effect of enforcement on poorer communities.

Those competing arguments could become important during the 2027 campaign.

The election is bigger than the candidates.

For many Lagos residents, the issues are much more immediate:

How expensive is it to live in Lagos?

How long does it take to move around the city?

Can people afford housing?

Are roads and public infrastructure keeping up with the population?

How should the government deal with informal settlements and unsafe buildings without leaving families stranded?

And what should Lagos look like after eight years of the Sanwo-Olu administration?

These questions give both the APC and opposition parties plenty to campaign on.

And as those issues develop, the OpinionMarket Lagos governorship market can also move.

For example, a major endorsement, new candidate, court development, controversy, campaign announcement or shift in public sentiment could change how traders price the different candidates.

That makes the market another interesting way to follow the political conversation alongside the news, campaigns and eventual election results.

The 2023 Lagos governorship election is also part of the story.

The election was won by Sanwo-Olu, while Rhodes-Vivour and PDP candidate Abdulazeez Adediran challenged the result through the courts. The legal challenges ultimately failed, with the Supreme Court upholding the result.

For 2027, questions around the conduct of elections and protection of votes are already appearing in opposition messaging.

Rhodes-Vivour has said the opposition coalition is being structured not only to mobilise voters but also to protect votes from intimidation and manipulation. That is his stated position, rather than an established finding about the 2027 election. Channels TV 

For now, Hamzat, Rhodes Vivour and Doherty are among the names attracting attention in the OpinionMarket Lagos 2027 market.

But the election is still months away.

Political alliances can change. Candidates can gain or lose support. New controversies can emerge. And issues that seem secondary today could become central campaign topics tomorrow.

The election is already being debated, but the numbers will continue to change as the political story unfolds.

Trade your opinion on who could become the next Governor of Lagos on OpinionMarket.