Kaduna 2027 Governorship Election: Uba Sani, Isa Ashiru and the Political Drama
.webp)
With the election scheduled for February 6, 2027, according to INEC’s published timetable, the major political parties have selected their candidates, campaign activities have begun, and old political alliances are being tested once again.
At the centre of the contest are incumbent Governor Uba Sani of the APC, Isa Ashiru of the ADC and Shehu Usman Bawa of the PDP, alongside other candidates.
On OpinionMarket Kaduna governorship market shown in the attached market image displayed: Uba Sani (APC) - 48%, Isa Ashiru (ADC) - 45%, Bawa Shehu Usman (PDP) - 5%, Other candidates - 2%.
It is also about the political fallout between former allies, opposition realignment, regional interests, religion, security, education and whether the political structure of a party can actually translate into votes.
And if the events of the last few weeks are anything to go by, Kaduna could have plenty more drama before voters head to the polls.
Now you need to understand why the 2027 race is attracting attention, it is important to look back at the last governorship election.
In 2023, APC's Uba Sani was declared winner with 730,002 votes, while PDP's Isa Ashiru finished with 719,196 votes a difference of just 10,806 votes.
The PDP won 13 local government areas, while APC won 10.
Ashiru rejected the result and challenged the election in court. The case eventually reached the Supreme Court, which affirmed Sani's victory in January 2024. Channels Tv
The 2023 result is the reason Ashiru cannot be dismissed. He lost by only 10,806 votes, but his route back to the governorship is now more complicated.. But this time, he is not contesting under the PDP.
He is now the ADC governorship candidate.
.webp)
Governor Uba Sani secured the APC governorship ticket without a contested primary, receiving 459,393 affirmation votes at the party's May 2026 primary.
His campaign enters the election with the advantage of incumbency and an APC structure that has expanded through political defections.
But Sani has also made a significant change to his 2027 ticket.
He selected Jerry Adams, the Executive Chairman of the Kaduna State Internal Revenue Service, as his running mate.
The decision is notable because APC had previously fielded Muslim-Muslim governorship tickets in Kaduna in 2019 and 2023. Adams is a Christian from Southern Kaduna. Channels Tv
That means religious and regional representation is likely to remain part of the political conversation as campaigns continue.
For Isa Ashiru, this is another attempt at the Kaduna governorship.
He contested the 2019 and 2023 elections under the PDP and finished second in both contests. In 2023, he came within 10,806 votes of defeating Uba Sani. Channels Tv
But the political landscape around Ashiru has changed considerably.
He is now representing the African Democratic Congress (ADC), following the wider opposition realignment ahead of 2027.
Ashiru won the ADC governorship primary in May with 86,113 votes. Channels Tv
He later selected former Kaduna State House of Assembly member Irmiya Kantitok as his running mate. Premium Times
The bigger question is whether the ADC can convert its growing political network into votes across Kaduna's three senatorial zones.
One of the biggest stories surrounding Kaduna politics is the changing relationship between Nasir El-Rufai and Uba Sani.
Sani succeeded El-Rufai as governor in 2023 after previously serving as senator for Kaduna Central.
Today, however, they are on opposing political sides.
El-Rufai has moved to the ADC, while Ashiru has become the party's governorship candidate.
That creates an unusual political situation: Ashiru, who previously contested against El-Rufai for governor, is now operating within the same political camp as the former governor.
Premium Times has described this realignment as one of the major factors reshaping the 2027 Kaduna contest. Premium Times
For political observers, one question is particularly interesting:
Can old political networks be transferred from one candidate or party to another?
That may become one of the biggest stories of the election.
The PDP has selected former House of Representatives member Shehu Usman Bawa as its governorship candidate.
Bawa won the party's primary with 124,170 votes, defeating Haruna Kajuru, who received 22,010 votes. Channels Tv
He has also selected Amos Gandu as his running mate. Vanguard News
The challenge for the PDP is that the political battle is no longer simply a repeat of APC versus PDP.
Ashiru's movement to the ADC has changed the opposition landscape, meaning opposition voters and political figures are now spread across different platforms.
That makes the question of opposition consolidation particularly important.
Kaduna's 2027 race has also produced an unusual nomination dispute involving the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Former Senator Danjuma La'ah and lawyer Mohammed Sani Abbas have been linked to competing claims over the party's governorship ticket.
In August, the NDC's Kaduna State chairman said the party had not officially settled on either candidate, saying the issue remained unresolved at both the state and national levels. Channels TV
The NDC's deputy national chairman for the North also disputed a purported document circulating online that appeared to show La'ah as the party's candidate. Punch Newspaper
This is one of those political stories that could become even more important if the dispute affects the party's final candidate or campaign structure.
The latest drama came almost immediately after the governorship campaign period opened.
On September 9, ADC supporters held a solidarity walk for Isa Ashiru in Kaduna.
The event later resulted in a confrontation involving security operatives.
The ADC alleged that security agencies were used to disrupt the gathering, while the Kaduna Police Command said its intervention followed concerns about public order and alleged obstruction of a major road.
The police said it did not intend to stop any lawful political gathering. Premium Times
The competing accounts have added another layer of tension to an already closely watched election.
And the story did not end there.
On September 16, Premium Times reported another confrontation involving APC and ADC supporters, with allegations involving damaged vehicles, party offices, banners and campaign materials. Premium Times
These incidents are important not because they determine who will win, but because they show how quickly political competition can become heated once campaigns officially begin.
Security is another issue that voters and political observers will be watching closely.
Kaduna has experienced years of insecurity, particularly in rural communities.
The issue has already become part of the political conversation, with opposition politicians criticising the government's handling of security while the administration points to its own efforts.
The election could therefore become partly a referendum on how voters assess the government's record on security, alongside issues such as infrastructure, education, jobs and the cost of living.
Education has also entered the campaign conversation.
In August, Governor Uba Sani and ADC candidate Isa Ashiru traded accusations over the dispute involving Kaduna State University (KASU) and the Academic Staff Union of Universities.
ASUU-KASU had threatened industrial action over welfare and institutional issues, while reports said more than 200 professors and other academic staff had left the university. Premium Times
For voters, issues like this could matter beyond party politics.
The question becomes:
What issues will actually influence voters when the campaign moves from rallies to polling units?
The 2023 numbers provide an interesting reference point.
Uba Sani won with 730,002 votes. Ashiru had 719,196. The difference was only 10,806 votes.
But the geographical distribution of those votes was also significant. PDP won 13 LGAs while APC won 10. Punch News
That means Kaduna's three senatorial zones, local political networks and turnout could all become important factors in 2027.
A candidate does not necessarily need to dominate every part of the state.
The electoral arithmetic can come down to where each party is able to build enough support and turnout.
This is where the Kaduna election becomes particularly interesting for prediction-market watchers.
And perhaps the biggest question:
So, what’s your take on the Kaduna 2027 governorship race? Trade your opinion on OpinionMarket and see how the market moves as the election draws closer.
.webp)
.webp)
