Benue 2027: Alia’s Second-Term Battle, Political Fallout and the Issues Shaping the Race

With the Benue State 2027 election fast approaching and the sitting Governor of Benue Governor Hyacinth Alia seeking another term, the opposition preparing for a comeback and serious disagreements within the ruling APC, Benue’s next governorship race is developing around security, public finances, political control, party divisions and the governor’s record in office.

The election is currently scheduled for February 6, 2027, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). INEC Nigeria

If the events of 2026 are anything to go by, Benue’s political season could get increasingly heated.

The biggest story surrounding the election is the political disagreement between Governor Hyacinth Alia and George Akume, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation and a major political figure in Benue.

The relationship between the two was once central to the APC's 2023 victory in the state. But by 2026, reports described a growing rift between their camps, with disagreements over political control, party structures and the direction of the 2027 election. The Guardian 

The dispute became particularly important around the APC governorship primary.

Governor Alia emerged as the APC candidate, but aspirant Jeffrey Kuraun rejected the result, alleging irregularities, manipulation and a denial of due process. Those are Kuraun's allegations, not established findings of fact. The Guardian

Alia subsequently said the disagreements within the party would be resolved and that the APC would overcome the post-primary crisis. The Cables

That leaves one major question hanging over the APC: can the party enter the general election as a united political machine?

The PDP is not approaching 2027 empty-handed.

The party selected Michael Kaase Aondoakaa, a former Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, as its consensus governorship candidate after other aspirants stepped down and endorsed him. The consensus process was backed by influential PDP figures and groups in the state. The Cable

Aondoakaa has already positioned himself around issues including security, unity and governance.

But the PDP candidate has also found himself at the centre of political attacks. In August, Aondoakaa denied an allegation circulating that he had traded away his governorship ambition for 10 billion Naira, describing the claim as political fabrication. The Guardian

Again, the allegation should be treated as an allegation, not a proven transaction.

Benue's 2027 election is also being shaped by the continuing political argument over the finances of the state.

In June 2026, the Benue State government commission of inquiry reported that 139.8 billion Naira in public funds from 2015 to 2023 could not be accounted for, according to its findings. The inquiry was established by the Alia administration to examine the finances and assets of the previous administration of Samuel Ortom. The Cable

That has become another political fault line.

The findings concern the 2015-2023 period, largely covering Ortom's administration, rather than establishing wrongdoing by the current governor. They have nevertheless become part of the political conversation surrounding the state's past government and the opposition figures now seeking power.

The controversies are not confined to the previous administration.

In May 2026, the Benue State House of Assembly suspended the Auditor-General for Local Government over allegations involving approximately 4.6 billion Naira in financial misappropriation and fraud. The allegations followed a letter from Governor Alia concerning the official, and the matter was described as being under investigation. The Cable

There have also been political tensions between the governor and members of the state political establishment.

Former Speaker of the Benue State House of Assembly, Aondona Dajoh, alleged that Alia pressured him to resign after he opposed a proposed relocation of the Tor Tiv palace. Dajoh's claim is disputed and should be understood as his allegation. The Cable

These episodes have contributed to the wider debate about political control and relations between the executive and other institutions in the state.

For ordinary voters, however, the biggest question may have little to do with party politics.

It is security.

Benue has continued to experience deadly attacks and displacement, making security one of the defining issues surrounding the Alia administration.

In July 2026, the killing of 15 people in Efeyi, Ugboju, in Otukpo Local Government Area triggered another political exchange between Governor Alia and PDP figures. The opposition accused the government of failing to provide adequate security, while Alia accused the opposition of politicising the crisis. Punch Newspaper

There is also a financial dimension to the security debate.

A review of Benue's first-quarter 2026 budget performance reported that the state spent 111.06 million Naira, or about 0.3%, of its 41.85 billion Naira security allocation during the first quarter. The figures have raised questions about security spending priorities amid continuing attacks. Premium Times

For voters living in affected communities, the question is therefore likely to be much simpler than the political arguments in Makurdi:

Has the government made them safer?

The 2027 contest also has to be viewed against the backdrop of the last governorship election.

In 2023, Alia, running on the APC platform, defeated PDP candidate Titus Uba with 473,933 votes to Uba's 223,913, according to the result cited by the Benue Governorship Election Petition Tribunal. The tribunal dismissed Uba's petition, while subsequent litigation continued through the courts. Channels Television

The political landscape has since changed.

The APC that dominated the 2023 election is now dealing with internal disagreements, while the PDP has reorganised around a new candidate.

That makes 2027 a very different contest from 2023.

Benue's 2027 governorship election is shaping up around a simple but complicated question:

Will voters reward continuity under Hyacinth Alia, or will the opposition convince them that the state needs a different direction?

The answer will ultimately come from Benue voters at the polls. For now, however, the political battles, allegations, security crisis and party divisions are already giving the election plenty of drama.

Beyond the political statements and campaign activities, there is another way to follow how the Benue 2027 race is developing: the prediction market.

At the time of writing, OpinionMarket’s Benue governorship market shows Governor Hyacinth Alia (APC) at 35%, Herman Iorwase Hembe (ADC) at 30%, Michael Aondoakaa (PDP) at 30%, while other candidates account for 5%.

The three leading names on the OpinionMarket market are Hyacinth Alia, Herman Iorwase Hembe and Michael Aondoakaa. Hembe is the ADC's governorship candidate, while Aondoakaa is the PDP candidate.

That makes the market particularly interesting because the political contest is not simply an incumbent-versus-opposition story. The ADC's Hembe is also being priced alongside the APC and PDP candidates, adding another dimension to the race.

As the election approaches, changes in party alliances, defections, campaign momentum, security developments and new political controversies could all affect how traders position themselves.

The market will continue to move as the political story develops.

Follow the Benue 2027 governorship market on OpinionMarket.

Kaduna 2027: Uba Sani, Isa Ashiru and the Political Drama

Kaduna 2027 Governorship Election: Uba Sani, Isa Ashiru and the Political Drama 

The Kaduna State governorship election race is already getting intense.

With the election scheduled for February 6, 2027, according to INEC’s published timetable, the major political parties have selected their candidates, campaign activities have begun, and old political alliances are being tested once again.

At the centre of the contest are incumbent Governor Uba Sani of the APC, Isa Ashiru of the ADC and Shehu Usman Bawa of the PDP, alongside other candidates.

On OpinionMarket Kaduna governorship market shown in the attached market image displayed: Uba Sani (APC)  - 48%, Isa Ashiru (ADC) - 45%, Bawa Shehu Usman (PDP) - 5%, Other candidates - 2%.

But Kaduna's 2027 election is about more than the names on the ballot.

It is also about the political fallout between former allies, opposition realignment, regional interests, religion, security, education and whether the political structure of a party can actually translate into votes.

And if the events of the last few weeks are anything to go by, Kaduna could have plenty more drama before voters head to the polls.

Now you need to understand why the 2027 race is attracting attention, it is important to look back at the last governorship election.

In 2023, APC's Uba Sani was declared winner with 730,002 votes, while PDP's Isa Ashiru finished with 719,196 votes a difference of just 10,806 votes.

The PDP won 13 local government areas, while APC won 10.

Ashiru rejected the result and challenged the election in court. The case eventually reached the Supreme Court, which affirmed Sani's victory in January 2024. Channels Tv

The 2023 result is the reason Ashiru cannot be dismissed. He lost by only 10,806 votes, but his route back to the governorship is now more complicated.. But this time, he is not contesting under the PDP.

He is now the ADC governorship candidate.

Governor Uba Sani secured the APC governorship ticket without a contested primary, receiving 459,393 affirmation votes at the party's May 2026 primary. 

His campaign enters the election with the advantage of incumbency and an APC structure that has expanded through political defections.

But Sani has also made a significant change to his 2027 ticket.

He selected Jerry Adams, the Executive Chairman of the Kaduna State Internal Revenue Service, as his running mate.

The decision is notable because APC had previously fielded Muslim-Muslim governorship tickets in Kaduna in 2019 and 2023. Adams is a Christian from Southern Kaduna. Channels Tv

That means religious and regional representation is likely to remain part of the political conversation as campaigns continue.

For Isa Ashiru, this is another attempt at the Kaduna governorship.

He contested the 2019 and 2023 elections under the PDP and finished second in both contests. In 2023, he came within 10,806 votes of defeating Uba Sani. Channels Tv

But the political landscape around Ashiru has changed considerably.

He is now representing the African Democratic Congress (ADC), following the wider opposition realignment ahead of 2027.

Ashiru won the ADC governorship primary in May with 86,113 votes. Channels Tv

He later selected former Kaduna State House of Assembly member Irmiya Kantitok as his running mate. Premium Times

The bigger question is whether the ADC can convert its growing political network into votes across Kaduna's three senatorial zones.

One of the biggest stories surrounding Kaduna politics is the changing relationship between Nasir El-Rufai and Uba Sani.

Sani succeeded El-Rufai as governor in 2023 after previously serving as senator for Kaduna Central.

Today, however, they are on opposing political sides.

El-Rufai has moved to the ADC, while Ashiru has become the party's governorship candidate.

That creates an unusual political situation: Ashiru, who previously contested against El-Rufai for governor, is now operating within the same political camp as the former governor.

Premium Times has described this realignment as one of the major factors reshaping the 2027 Kaduna contest. Premium Times

For political observers, one question is particularly interesting:

Can old political networks be transferred from one candidate or party to another?

That may become one of the biggest stories of the election.

The PDP has selected former House of Representatives member Shehu Usman Bawa as its governorship candidate.

Bawa won the party's primary with 124,170 votes, defeating Haruna Kajuru, who received 22,010 votes. Channels Tv

He has also selected Amos Gandu as his running mate. Vanguard News

The challenge for the PDP is that the political battle is no longer simply a repeat of APC versus PDP.

Ashiru's movement to the ADC has changed the opposition landscape, meaning opposition voters and political figures are now spread across different platforms.

That makes the question of opposition consolidation particularly important.

Kaduna's 2027 race has also produced an unusual nomination dispute involving the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

Former Senator Danjuma La'ah and lawyer Mohammed Sani Abbas have been linked to competing claims over the party's governorship ticket.

In August, the NDC's Kaduna State chairman said the party had not officially settled on either candidate, saying the issue remained unresolved at both the state and national levels. Channels TV

The NDC's deputy national chairman for the North also disputed a purported document circulating online that appeared to show La'ah as the party's candidate. Punch Newspaper

This is one of those political stories that could become even more important if the dispute affects the party's final candidate or campaign structure.

The latest drama came almost immediately after the governorship campaign period opened.

On September 9, ADC supporters held a solidarity walk for Isa Ashiru in Kaduna.

The event later resulted in a confrontation involving security operatives.

The ADC alleged that security agencies were used to disrupt the gathering, while the Kaduna Police Command said its intervention followed concerns about public order and alleged obstruction of a major road.

The police said it did not intend to stop any lawful political gathering. Premium Times

The competing accounts have added another layer of tension to an already closely watched election.

And the story did not end there.

On September 16, Premium Times reported another confrontation involving APC and ADC supporters, with allegations involving damaged vehicles, party offices, banners and campaign materials. Premium Times

These incidents are important not because they determine who will win, but because they show how quickly political competition can become heated once campaigns officially begin.

Security is another issue that voters and political observers will be watching closely.

Kaduna has experienced years of insecurity, particularly in rural communities.

The issue has already become part of the political conversation, with opposition politicians criticising the government's handling of security while the administration points to its own efforts.

The election could therefore become partly a referendum on how voters assess the government's record on security, alongside issues such as infrastructure, education, jobs and the cost of living.

Education has also entered the campaign conversation.

In August, Governor Uba Sani and ADC candidate Isa Ashiru traded accusations over the dispute involving Kaduna State University (KASU) and the Academic Staff Union of Universities.

ASUU-KASU had threatened industrial action over welfare and institutional issues, while reports said more than 200 professors and other academic staff had left the university. Premium Times

For voters, issues like this could matter beyond party politics.

The question becomes:

What issues will actually influence voters when the campaign moves from rallies to polling units?

The 2023 numbers provide an interesting reference point.

Uba Sani won with 730,002 votes. Ashiru had 719,196. The difference was only 10,806 votes.

But the geographical distribution of those votes was also significant. PDP won 13 LGAs while APC won 10. Punch News

That means Kaduna's three senatorial zones, local political networks and turnout could all become important factors in 2027.

A candidate does not necessarily need to dominate every part of the state.

The electoral arithmetic can come down to where each party is able to build enough support and turnout.

This is where the Kaduna election becomes particularly interesting for prediction-market watchers.

And perhaps the biggest question:

Will Kaduna's 2027 election be another narrow contest, or will one political camp manage to pull clearly ahead before February?

So, what’s your take on the Kaduna 2027 governorship race? Trade your opinion on OpinionMarket and see how the market moves as the election draws closer.

Can Abba Yusuf win Kano State 2027 Election  again?

Political activity is heating up in Kano as the state prepares for its 2027 governorship race. OpinionMarket currently places Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the APC ahead of his main rivals, with Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo of the NDC party and Muhammad Bello Dalhatu of PDP party trailing behind.

 However, the market is not simply a contest between candidates; it reflects a deeper struggle involving the Kwankwasiyya movement, the APC establishment, party defections and the political legacy of the disputed 2023 election.

OpinionMarket’s displayed forecast shows Aminu Abdussalam at 55%, Abba Kabir Yusuf at 36%, Muhammad Bello Dalhatu at 5% and other candidates at 4%. These figures represent the market’s current expectations, not official polling results or a guarantee of the eventual winner.

The big question is: who has the strongest political machinery to win Kano?

The 2019 election showed just how competitive Kano politics could be.

The then governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC faced Abba Yusuf of the PDP. The initial election was declared inconclusive after Yusuf polled 1,014,474 votes against Ganduje's 987,819. Punch

After a supplementary election, Ganduje eventually won with 1,033,695 votes, while Yusuf finished with 1,024,713 a difference of fewer than 9,000 votes. Wikipedia

That narrow result demonstrated something important about Kano: a strong political structure can make the difference in a closely contested election.

Four years later, Yusuf returned as the NNPP candidate, backed by former governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiyya political movement.

The APC fielded Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, Ganduje's former deputy.

This time, Yusuf won.

INEC declared him the winner with 1,019,602 votes, compared with Gawuna's 890,705. Youtube

But the victory did not end the battle.

The APC challenged the result, and the election tribunal later declared Gawuna the winner. The Court of Appeal upheld that decision before the Supreme Court overturned the lower-court rulings in January 2024 and affirmed Yusuf's election. ChannelsTV

The political landscape changed dramatically when Yusuf left the NNPP and joined the APC in January 2026. APC

That means the man who defeated the APC in 2023 will now seek re-election under the party he defeated.

The move also created a major split with parts of the political structure that helped him win.

His former deputy, Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, eventually emerged as the NDC's governorship candidate. Business Day

Gwarzo's candidacy makes the race particularly interesting because he was not an outsider to the Yusuf administration. He served as Yusuf's deputy governor before their political relationship broke down.

Even more importantly, Gwarzo has the backing of the Kwankwasiyya camp, with Mustapha Kwankwaso, Rabiu Kwankwaso's son, chosen as his running mate. PM News Nigeria

That could make the contest a direct test of whether Yusuf can retain the political network that helped bring him to power in 2023.

Another important piece of Kano's political puzzle is Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, Yusuf's 2023 opponent.

Gawuna has since left the APC and moved into the opposition camp associated with Kwankwaso. He is now positioned for a Senate contest rather than another governorship run. Legit

His movement shows just how much the political alliances that shaped the 2023 election have changed ahead of 2027.

The PDP will be represented by Muhammad Bello Dalhatu, who emerged from the party's governorship primary after defeating Muhammad Sani Abacha. Legit

Dalhatu faces a difficult task.

With the major political battle increasingly centred around Yusuf and Gwarzo, the PDP will need to build a strong grassroots campaign if it wants to become more than a third force in the race.

OpinionMarket's Kano governorship market currently has:

Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo  55%, Abba Kabir Yusuf  36%,Muhammad Bello Dalhatu  5%
Others  4%

These figures represent the current positions in the OpinionMarket prediction market, not an opinion poll or official election forecast.

With the governorship election scheduled for February 6, 2027, there is still considerable time for alliances, endorsements, campaign strength and political developments to change the race. INEC

Kano's 2027 election is shaping up to be more than a contest between three candidates.

It is a battle over political alliances, the Kwankwasiyya movement, APC's growing influence and the ability of former allies to turn their grassroots networks against one another.

For Abba Yusuf, the challenge is defending the seat he won in 2023 after changing political camps.

For Aminu Gwarzo, it is an opportunity to turn his former position inside the government and his Kwankwasiyya backing into electoral strength.

And for Muhammad Bello Dalhatu, the challenge is breaking into a contest dominated by two powerful political camps.

Kano's political chessboard has changed. The question now is who will control it when voters go to the polls in 2027.