Borno 2027: Who Will Succeed Zulum? The Candidates, Political Power Plays and What History Tells Us
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With Mustapha Gubio flying the APC flag, Babagana Buhari representing the ADC and Abba-Gana Ibrahim Baba contesting for the PDP, the question is not just who will become governor, but what the election could mean for Borno's political future. INEC
To understand the coming election, it is important to look at how Borno has voted in previous governorship contests.
In 2019, Babagana Zulum emerged as the APC candidate after serving as commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement under the administration of Kashim Shettima. He went on to win the governorship election with 1,175,440 votes, defeating PDP candidate Muhammad Imam, who received 66,115 votes.
The result gave the APC a commanding victory and continued the party's control of the state, which began under Shettima's administration in 2011. The Guardian
Four years later, Zulum contested for a second term and again won convincingly. In the March 2023 election, he received approximately 545,543 votes, while PDP candidate Mohammed Ali Jajari polled 82,147 votes.
The APC also won all 28 seats in the Borno State House of Assembly, according to Voice of Nigeria
These results demonstrate the APC's established electoral strength in Borno. However, past victories do not guarantee future outcomes. The 2027 contest will involve different candidates, political circumstances and campaign issues.
The race to succeed Zulum is also a contest over political influence and the direction of the ruling party.
Vice President Kashim Shettima remains a significant figure in Borno politics, having served as governor from 2011 to 2019 before Zulum succeeded him. The relationship between the outgoing governor, influential party figures and the next generation of political leadership has therefore attracted attention.
In 2026, reports about Zulum's support for Mustapha Gubio brought renewed attention to the APC's succession process and the political interests surrounding it. Premium Times
Such developments highlight the importance of party relationships in Borno's politics. However, endorsements are only one part of an election. Campaign organisation, voter participation, candidates' proposals and the wider political environment will also matter.
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Meet the major governorship candidates
Mustapha Gubio - APC
Mustapha Gubio is the APC's candidate for the 2027 governorship election. His previous public service roles include commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, as well as commissioner for Works and Housing.
These responsibilities connect his record to two major areas of governance in Borno: rebuilding communities affected by insurgency and developing infrastructure.
As the ruling party's candidate, Gubio will face questions about continuity with the Zulum administration. Voters will want to know which existing policies he intends to maintain, what he would change and how he plans to address persistent challenges in security, employment and public services.
His campaign will also be an opportunity to explain how his experience would translate into a clear programme for the state. INEC
Babagana Buhari - ADC
Babagana Buhari is listed as the ADC's governorship candidate by INEC.
His candidacy provides the party with an opportunity to challenge the established political order in Borno. But competing against a party with a history of statewide victories requires more than presenting an alternative candidate.
The ADC will need to communicate its priorities, organise its campaign across the state and explain how its policies would address the concerns of residents.
Key issues to watch include the party's approach to security, reconstruction, education, agriculture and employment, as well as its ability to maintain an organised campaign. INEC
Abba-Gana Ibrahim Baba - PDP
Abba-Gana Ibrahim Baba is the PDP's candidate for the election.
The PDP has previously challenged the APC in Borno, but its candidates lost to Zulum in both 2019 and 2023. For the party, the 2027 contest presents another opportunity to present an alternative programme and build support among voters.
Its campaign will need to explain how the candidate proposes to address the state's security and economic challenges, improve public services and create opportunities for young people.
The effectiveness of the party's organisation and the clarity of its policy proposals will be important subjects to monitor as the campaign progresses. INEC
Beyond political alliances, Borno's next governor will inherit several challenges that are central to residents' everyday lives.
Security and displacement: Years of Boko Haram insurgency have affected communities, disrupted economic activity and forced many residents from their homes. Voters will want to hear how candidates intend to improve security and support the safe return and reintegration of displaced people.
Reconstruction and infrastructure: Rebuilding homes, schools, healthcare facilities and local economies remains an important part of the state's recovery. Candidates should explain how they would fund and implement their proposed projects.
Employment and agriculture: Agriculture and local trade support many livelihoods across Borno. Policies addressing access to markets, support for farmers, small businesses and youth employment will be relevant to the campaign.
Education and healthcare: Access to quality schools, healthcare facilities and essential services will also be important measures against which residents can examine campaign promises. Digital Library
OpinionMarket's Borno governorship market offers another way to follow the contest as political developments unfold.
In the screenshot provided, the displayed figures are: Mustapha Gubio (APC): 33%, Babagana Buhari (ADC): 30%, Ibrahim Abba Gana (PDP): 30%, Other candidate: 7%
These are figures displayed by OpinionMarket at the time of the screenshot. They are not official polling results or confirmed probabilities of winning.
As the election approaches, developments involving party alliances, campaign announcements, candidate policies and security conditions will give users more information to consider. Market prices can change and should not be treated as a substitute for verified reporting.
Borno's 2027 governorship election will test the political relationships that have shaped the state for years while placing renewed attention on security, reconstruction and economic recovery.
The APC enters the race with a history of strong electoral results, while the ADC and PDP are preparing to challenge its position. The candidates' programmes, political organisation and responses to the state's challenges will all be important areas for public scrutiny.
As the race develops, OpinionMarket will continue following the political stories shaping Nigeria and the world.
Follow the Borno 2027 governorship market on OpinionMarket and keep up with the developments shaping the contest.
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